2024 AI Predictions

Our previous prediction, “Creative AI Breaks Through 2023,” was spot on, which sets the bar high. Looking back, our prediction may look obvious, but at the time, it was far from that. McKinsey’s The state of AI in mid-2022 study concluded that the share of organizations that have adopted AI hasn’t risen in four years, and the average number of AI services per organization seems to have plateaued, too. This was half a year before the biggest AI disruption of our age unfolded.

We just celebrated our 10th Making AI Approachable webinar. These webinars aim at decision-makers who approach AI from customer, product, and business perspectives. AI is technical, but we see technology as an enabler, not the primary purpose. The webinars have covered AI from cyber security to product making to business. We’ve presented online and on live stages in the US and Europe. In the latest webinar, we covered and shared 5 predictions for 2024. Please read forward to see where we predict AI will take us in 2024. 

Prediction 1: System 1 & 2 Thinking and What That Means for AI

We start our AI predictions by digging deep. There’s a growing interest in differentiating and integrating what’s known as System 1 and System 2 thinking in AI. System 1 thinking, as described by psychologist Daniel Kahneman, is fast, intuitive, and effortless. For example, you automatically know that 2 plus 2 equals 4. It represents the kind of quick, intuitive responses that AI, particularly generative AI, has become adept at replicating.

Conversely, System 2 thinking involves more effort, logic, and complexity. It’s the thinking you engage in when solving a more challenging problem, like multiplying 17 by 24. This kind of reasoning is deliberate and sequential. It’s akin to playing a strategic game of chess where each move requires careful consideration of future consequences and possibilities.

AI’s challenge and goal is to evolve generative AI models that can mimic this type of complex System 2 thinking. Currently, tools like ChatGPT provide immediate responses but need more depth and reflection of System 2 thinking. Researchers are working towards AI that can ponder a problem, construct a “tree of thoughts,” and provide more deliberate, reasoned responses. This is a clear step from the instant, reactive outputs we’re accustomed to. The aim is for AI to give an answer and reflect, rephrase, and return with a well-considered response. This would also reduce the chances of “hallucinations” or false information.

AI will not only generate content but also engage with users in a more thoughtful and nuanced manner. This would simulate the kind of contemplative intelligence that has been, until now, a uniquely human trait​

Prediction 2: AI Ecosystem Game and Microsoft Partners

Our second AI prediction broadens the Microsfot Copilot story towards the partners. The AI ecosystem game is set to change the role of Microsoft partners drastically. This empowers them to build and implement sophisticated functionalities for organizations and clients. With the advent of Microsoft 365 Copilot and its extensibility, partners are at the forefront of this transformation. Partners are set to, craft tailored AI solutions that are seamlessly integrated into business workflows.

Microsoft partners are positioned to leverage the capabilities of Copilot by developing custom plugins. They introduce new skills relevant to specific industry needs. These plugins can connect Copilot to REST APIs from an organization’s line of business applications. The connection allows Copilot to perform specialized functions and to interact with unique software systems.

Additionally, partners will be crucial in expanding Copilot’s knowledge base through graph connectors. By connecting Copilot to a company’s line of business data, partners can facilitate a deeper integration of AI into the organization’s data estate. This allows Copilot to provide more personalized and context-aware insights and actions.

By extending Copilot for Microsoft 365 with these custom skills and organizational knowledge, partners enable various AI scenarios that were previously not possible with out-of-the-box solutions. This means that partners are innovators, creating unique AI-powered applications that drive efficiency and maintain workflow from start to finish.

The ability to inherit Microsoft’s robust security, compliance, and privacy policies means that these partner-built extensions can be trusted and scaled across enterprises without compromising these critical aspects.

As the AI ecosystem continues to evolve, Microsoft partners are at the cusp of a new era where they can offer transformative AI solutions that redefine how businesses operate. In this game-changing environment, partners become strategic advisors, solution developers, and key players in accelerating the AI revolution within the enterprise space.

Prediction 3: AI Will Cross the the Early Adopters – Early Majority Chasm

The trajectory of AI advancement in 2024 is poised to bridge the gap between the early adopters and the early majority. The democratization of generative AI fuels this transition, thanks to the convergence of massively pre-trained models, cloud computing, and open-source frameworks. Such a confluence makes generative AI accessible to a global workforce, paving the way for widespread adoption.

Gartner‘s bold predictions suggest that by 2026, over 80% of enterprises will have utilized generative AI APIs, models, and applications in production environments, a significant increase from less than 5% in 2023. This marks a critical juncture where AI moves beyond the pioneering trendsetters and into the hands of the early majority—those keenly interested in technology but require solid evidence of its effectiveness before adoption.

The decision-making difference between early adopters and the early majority lies in their approach to risk and evidence: while early adopters are trendsetters who are comfortable taking risks and form their opinions based on the potential of technology, the early majority are more cautious and interested in technology but requiring concrete proof of its effectiveness before committing to its use.

The early majority represents 34% of the population. Crossing the chasm between Early adopters and the early majority is crucial for achieving a tipping point in AI adoption. As generative AI becomes more approachable and integrated into daily workflows, the evidence-based trust and reliance on its capabilities grow, allowing businesses to tap into the potential that AI has to offer fully.

The bridging of this chasm by AI in 2024 will not only mark a milestone in technological adoption. Still, it will also signal the maturation of AI as an indispensable component of business operations, driving growth and innovation across all sectors.

Prediction 4: AI Will Drive Employee Satisfaction (and Dissatisfaction)

According to Forrester‘s predictions, an astounding 60% of employees will resort to using their own AI tools at work in 2024, indicating a profound shift in work habits and the perceived necessity of AI in professional effectiveness. However, this surge in AI tool adoption presents a double-edged sword, bringing about heightened security risks and the emergence of shadow AI usage within organizations.

The dilemma faced by employees—whether to adhere to IT policies or to perform their jobs with professional efficacy using unapproved AI tools—underscores a gap in the provided technology. This gap reveals that companies may not be equipping their workforce with sufficient AI resources, leading to an increased reliance on personal AI solutions.

Tech leaders find themselves under mounting pressure from both employees and executives to adopt AI, a sentiment that resonates throughout the industry. The choice is no longer about whether to integrate AI but rather about how effectively to guide its adoption to maximize value and mitigate risks.

Dystopian Stagnation

Here, companies fail to provide relevant AI tools, leading to a workforce mired in outdated practices and inefficient workflows. Manual tasks that AI could automate will overburden employees. Such workplaces risk falling behind. This could lead to a future where these workers face redundancy without the opportunity to upskill or adapt to the changing technological landscape.

Utopian Strivers

Organizations adopt AI tools and ensure that their employees are equipped to use them effectively. In this ideal scenario, there’s a synergy between the availability of AI tools and the eagerness of employees to utilize them, driving both productivity and job satisfaction. These companies are marked by a culture of innovation, where AI is seamlessly integrated into daily work, empowering employees and fostering a spirit of continual growth and learning.

Technology-Rich, Adoption-Poor

Some organizations may be quick to integrate AI tools but find that their workforce is not catching up or, in some cases, is being replaced by automation. This could be due to a lack of proper training or resistance to change. The result is a workplace where employee dissatisfaction could arise from a perceived threat to job security or from the stress of adapting to new technologies.

Demand Without Supply

In this scenario, employees recognize the value of AI and demand such tools to enhance their work. However, if companies do not provide the required AI resources, these employees may experience frustration and dissatisfaction, leading to a talent drain as they seek opportunities elsewhere. These companies risk losing competitive edge and valuable human capital if they do not address the growing demand for AI-enabled work environments.

For 2024, it’s crucial for companies to align their AI maturity with their team’s tech adoption maturity. Fostering a workplace where AI tools are provided and effectively used leads to high productivity and employee satisfaction. Conversely, failing to bridge the gap between AI offerings and employee needs could result in dissatisfaction and a decline in competitive standing.

Prediction 5: Marketing Will Catch Up With Tech Mumbo Jumbo

We’ll conclude our 2024 AI predictions on a lighter note. The year 2024 will mark a decisive shift in how marketing communicates the value of technology. Tech jargon won’t dominate the conversation for long. Marketing evolves to translate complex AI features into compelling, practical benefits that resonate with a broader audience.

We entered 2023 tech first. ChatGPT skyrocketed to 100M users in 2 months, faster than any app before. For the rest of the year, the AI story evolved in the lower layers of the tech stack. News about the availability of chipsets, competing language models, the launch of new enabling tools, etc., dominated. It was a challenging year for marketing, comms, and press to write approachable content for less tech-oriented audiences.

As the early majority enters the AI stage, they’ll both demand and produce more fact-based content. A good example of a concrete use case with benefits comes from Harvard Business School. They studied Boston Consulting Group consultants at work. Teams equipped with AI tools completed 12% more tasks, 25% faster, and 40% higher quality than those without. Such fact-based validations will be key in attracting the early majority. They are, as we earlier concluded, interested in technology but need concrete evidence of its effectiveness.

Expect marketing to focus less on specs and more on features, use cases, and benefits they deliver in 2024. We’ll see AI addressing real pains and delivering real gains.  Ultimately, the narrative will shift from an obsession with what AI is to a clear articulation of what AI does. We’ll bridge the gap between innovation and practical application in 2024.

What do you think about our AI predictions? Please get in touch with us and leave your thoughts.