2022 Predictions by Avalon CX

This blog looks back to the 2021 predictions, to keep us humble and makes new 2022 predictions. One key theme is the ongoing uncertainty and the multidimensional nature of change. We don’t talk about recovery or post-covid. Rather, we assume that some things are already back to where they were and others will go back there. Some things will go somewhere else, and some things will fluctuate here and there. Another new key theme is the supply side of things. Last year we focused on CX and understanding the client. Now we’ll add to this picture the unpredictability of supply, whether it’s chips, logistics, workforce, or partners. Transportation and Logistics are one of our core competence areas. The year 2021 has reminded us how interlinked our world is and how dependent we are on smooth transportation. We’ll all have to be humble and prepare for the unpredictable, build for flexibility and plan long term. You can read more about our 2021 highlights here.

What were the hits and misses of our 2021 predictions? 

In hindsight, the whole concept of ‘path to recovery’ feels one-dimensional, even naive. 

1. In part, recovery has already happened. The US unemployment rate is close to the pre-pandemic level. A year ago, the stock market had already reached the pre-pandemic level, and the growth continued. In economic terms, the recovery has already happened.
2. Somewhere else, we’re still in the deep end. The healthcare system is even more strained than before, and with the emergence of Omicron and whatever comes after, there’s no end in sight. And so, the unpredictability goes on.
3. The ripple effects that we didn’t even have on our radar keep creating shockwaves. The chip shortage keeps the availability of electronics unpredictable. The logistics jam in the harbors impacts products across industries. These are just a few contributing to inflation and indirectly to monetary policy, interest rates, and so on.

So, we’ll stop talking about recovery as a one-dimensional future direction in our 2022 predictions.

Predicting changing consumer behavior was spot on. What was surprising here was the impact of the supply side. Closing restaurants and bars pushed waiters and waitresses to find other sources of income. Restaurants continue to operate on reduced hours and are limited staff, and the customer experience is often sub-par as a result. Airlines pushed personnel out and now suffer from staff shortages. Government-mandated restrictions have contributed too. (We’re not taking sides whether these saved lives, restricted business, or both.) Even something very fundamental we have taken for granted, energy, has proven to be in short supply. Should we assume these are temporary wrinkles? Let’s not. Let’s assume the new normal is less predictable. 

2022 Predictions

Attracting and retaining talent will be the differentiator

Billions of people have been pushed to rethink the concepts of work, career, and office. There is and will be more mobility between industries, companies, and roles. Geographic boundaries haven’t disappeared, but remote work has brought a new level of mobility. These aren’t one-off shifts but a shift in the collective mindset.

West Coast tech companies set the standard for pre-pandemic office experience with chefs, services, and inspiration. There’s no going back, the hybrid work is here to stay. It’s easier to change the employer when just the logo of your Teams or Zoom background picture changes. But anyone can offer remote work. How do you differentiate as an employer? How do you strike the balance between a connected, motivated team with a culture vs. the freedom of remote work? Employees are more fluid than before. If they don’t like your choices, they’ll move on. Anyone can offer remote work, no differentiation there. Building a culture without a natural face-to-face connection is challenging. How to do it right?

One thing we’re experimenting with is VR. It’s not to replace face-to-face, but an innovative and important part of the mix. You can read about our early experiences here, and we’ll write more in 2022. It’s not metaverse yet, but something like Netscape 1994. Impressive, frustrating, exciting, and you know there’s no going back.

Flexible capacity becomes a must-have asset

Following the theme of ongoing unpredictability, flexibility is king. 2020 we learned customer demand is unpredictable. 2021 we learned that so are many things on the supply side. As a 2022 prediction, it is the year we learn to cope with these uncertainties. You can take pride in managing uncertainties and making things work in tough situations. We do! But you can’t remove uncertainty, and the level of uncertainty outside your control has settled to a new level.

If you don’t know the demand or supply, how could you predict the workload? Having the right partners in your network address this issue. A partner can move resources from one industry to another or one function to another. You can keep the core team in-house and build the culture around them, and have access to the right resources when necessary.

Building partnerships is like recruiting employees. It takes time to find the right ones, and that’s just the start of the journey. We should know we’ve tested 244 candidates during 2020 and talked to a whole lot more. That’s about one test per working day every day of the year. 

How do you meet your client?

Oh, how simple life used to be. High-value clients were met face-to-face. The next tier was the ones that got personal service over the phone. Masses were served through technology. Yes, you would buy Tesla online and a hot dog face-to-face, but you get the picture. Now, it’s a hot mess. Vendor A is trying to send a salesman to a meeting, but the policy of Client X is to work from home. At Client Y, face-to-face meetings are possible, but Mary and John work from home this week. Client Z is asking Vendor B to fly over but …something. 

For decades we collectively built customer engagement processes: sales, delivery, service, etc. to fit a certain mold. Now we have a number of choices to make

1. Do we diversify our processes to serve all client preferences? “We specialize in the in-restaurant experience, delivery, and take-out”, and “We still have a showroom for cars, or you can conveniently arrange everything remotely” provide flexibility, but can you truly excel in everything?
2. Do we specialize in a specific client preference? “100% touchless process”, and “Still delivering the human touch” both make a bold statement and appeal more than plain vanilla. But are they resilient when the unexpected happens, and are they future-proof in the long run?
3. What kind of workforce do you have and need? “We have to adapt to all kinds of client needs that change over time”, “We make the difference by meeting people”, and “Our process keeps you safe and doesn’t require commute” are very different employee propositions, each very lucrative to someone. If you don’t have an employee value prop, you’ll lose. Picking one that’s not in line with your current staff may cause turbulence. If you pick one that drives a client engagement model, not in line with your clientele, there’s another storm there.

In conclusion

For 2021 we predicted that “Customer understanding will pay back better than EVER before.” It’s still a core element in our 2022 predictions, but we’d like to add the supply side here too. Besides customers, understanding employees (both in-house and the partner ecosystem) will pay back better than EVER before.

We’d love to hear from you. Please drop us a line here. Happy New Year 2022! A year from now, we can evaluate the hits and misses of this post.